La imagen habitual que tenemos de los refugiados es la un ciudadano sirio huyendo de la guerra y la persecución, sin dinero y sin un lugar al que ir. Otra imagen recurrente es la de personas procedentes de Oriente Medio empujadas por el extremismo, posiblemente influenciadas por él y capaces de extenderlo en Occidente. Estas imágenes no pueden estar más equivocadas.
En 2006 Siria y otros países de Oriente Medio experimentaron la peor sequía registrada en la historia. Antes de la crisis, gran parte de la población siria eran agricultores con buena calidad de vida y salud. Otros eran perforadores de pozos, extractores de agua para la agricultura. Antes de la sequía bastaba con perforar 100-200 metros para encontrar agua, ahora hay que bajar 700 metros o más. Este brutal descenso del nivel de los acuíferos ha ocurrido en muchas otras partes del mundo (incluida España).
El gobierno sirio ha tenido su parte de responsabilidad. La sequía provocó una oleada de corrupción para conseguir perforar pozos ilegales, mientras que los ya existentes se sobreexplotaron. Muchos agricultores fueron llevados a prisión por excavar pozos no autorizados.
La sequía forzó a 1,5 millones de agricultores a emigrar a las ciudades, que se sumaron a los muchos refugiados huídos de Irak tras la invasión norteamericana. La sobrepoblación y correspondiente escasez de agua y suministros se cree que contribuyó al estallido de las protestas de 2011, que desembocaron en la amarga guerra civil que devasta Siria desde entonces. Un principal responsable de la guerra es el dictatorial Gobierno sirio, sin olvidar la influencia del ISIS (Estado Islámico). Pero crece la evidencia de que el cambio climático también es un factor muy importante.
Se investiga cada vez más en la relación entre cambio climático y migraciones. Por ejemplo, varios países isleños en el Pacífico y el Índico están al borde del desastre por la elevación del nivel del mar, y sus emigrantes pueden ser clasificados como refugiados climáticos. No obstante, la Convención de Ginebra y la ley internacional sobre refugiados clasifica como tales únicamente a los que dejan sus hogares por el riesgo de persecución. No hay definición legal para aquellos que huyen de riesgos como las sequías o el avance del mar. También puede ser equívoco para los que huyen tanto de la violencia como de los riesgos climáticos ser considerados solamente “refugiados climáticos”.
La investigación sugiere que crece el riesgo de grandes migraciones procedentes de regiones como Oriente Medio y África al sur del Sahara. Las crecientes tensiones políticas y sociales están provocando que los refugiados del clima no se queden en sus países, sino que se muevan a otros. Personalidades como John Kerry o el príncipe Carlos de Inglaterra alertan sobre la creciente relación entre un acuciante cambio climático y la posibilidad de una visión post-apocalíptica en la que Siria es una visión de lo que le espera a todo el sur del Mediterráneo.
Es evidente que el cambio climático no es la única razón de la actual crisis de refugiados. En realidad son todavía un pequeño porcentaje los migrantes empujados “exclusivamente” por el cambio climático. La mayoría huyen de la violencia y la persecución, aunque haya muchas veces una distintiva relación entre los riesgos climáticos y los factores políticos. Es muy posible que la situación empeore en las próximas décadas por empeoramiento de la situación ambiental en Oriente Medio. Se tiene la ominosa sensación de que la situación ambiental de Siria podrá extenderse por todo el Medio Oriente y toda Europa.
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